Reflections on Biden, Harris, and the Path Forward

My Follow-Up on Biden, Harris, and What Should Come Next

I appreciate the feedback from everyone who engaged with my initial post. I couldn't fully share my thought process without first expressing the initial emotional response I felt as I watched calls for Biden to step down.

To be clear, I believe Biden has been a good President, especially given the chaos our country was in when he took office. He has reintroduced vital regulations to agencies gutted by his predecessor, made significant strides in infrastructure, student debt, and national economics, and has restored a semblance of dignity on the international stage that was severely damaged by Trump.

However, what I dislike is the public humiliation Biden endures despite his dedicated service. He is an elder statesman with an unparalleled record of service. There must be a better way to guide him without embarrassing him, his family, or our country—Trump does enough of that on his own.

Given this context, the only logical decision is to support Kamala Harris as the nominee. Legally, it's the most straightforward path, as she is already on the ticket, and navigating the electoral legalities for anyone else would be a nightmare. She has been a good Vice President, an excellent stateswoman, and I believe she can effectively counter Trump.

My concerns lie in our ability as Democrats to unite behind Harris and her VP pick (a topic that merits its own discussion). We must move beyond petty criticisms. Remember the nitpicking around Hillary, Warren, and Klobuchar? We can’t afford to be swayed by superficial issues. If Democrats can organize behind this change, it will be a historic achievement. With 30 days until the Democratic National Convention and five months until the first absentee ballots go out, Democrats need a unifying moment. This could deliver the sense of urgency the party desperately needs—political engagement has decreased, and voter turnout is abysmal.

As a Democrat, I am ready to do my part to make this happen. Send me to doors, give me a call list, and let’s write postcards because some parts of this country will require deep persuasion.

My other concern lies in the data. Some polls and dial tests are too small to gauge a true national response. We cannot be reactionary; Democrats need reliable data to ensure that any decision made is well-received. Republicans have data that has influenced Trump to distance himself from Project 2025. I'm sure efforts are already underway—three polls that I am aware of have been issued collecting approval ratings on Harris in the last day.

We must exercise caution as we navigate the current political landscape. A recent Marist poll shows Biden up by 2 points, with most polling within the margin of error, even after enduring the most challenging two weeks of his political career. This demonstrates resilience and suggests that his base remains intact despite adversities.

Moreover, there is promising data indicating that Biden is ahead in two out of three crucial Blue Wall states—Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Historically, these states have been pivotal in determining the outcome of presidential elections. If Biden secures all three, it effectively seals his victory—a win is a win. The reality of this election is that it will be decided by a handful of battleground states, likely five to seven. Biden needs to clinch victory in just three of these to secure a second term, and current trends suggest he is leading in at least two.

However, it is essential to recognize the impact of perceived division within the Democratic Party. Low-information voters, who often make decisions based on broader narratives rather than in-depth policy analysis, can be swayed by the appearance of discord. This uncertainty makes them uneasy about supporting Biden, and it’s a vulnerability that must be addressed.

We must also learn from recent history. The “red wave” narrative in the 2022 midterms significantly depressed Democratic voter turnout, costing us control of the House. It is a stark reminder that overconfidence or disunity can have tangible negative consequences. We cannot afford to repeat this mistake.

Therefore, our strategy must focus on presenting a united front, emphasizing the stakes of this election, and the critical importance of maintaining and expanding the coalition that brought Biden to victory in 2020. Clear, consistent messaging that highlights Biden’s accomplishments and contrasts them with the potential risks of a Trump administration is paramount. We need to reinforce the urgency of participation and the power of each vote in safeguarding our democracy.

By doing so, we can mitigate the impact of negative narratives and ensure that our supporters remain engaged and motivated. This strategic approach will help us navigate the complexities of this election and secure the best possible outcome for our country.

Let's stay united and strategic as we navigate these crucial months ahead.